Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +3 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.6 (+3.6) | 128.7 (-27.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.3 (+5.3) | 127.7 (-26.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.5 (+3.5) | 130.3 (-29.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.5 (+3.5) | 129.6 (-28.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | UVA 55 – 50 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 60.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#187) | 6.1 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#125) | 1.29 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#163) | 2.65 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#121) | 0.539 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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