Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1000 JMU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -4.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-39.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.7 (-1.7) | 139.4 (-34.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.8 (-1.8) | 133.5 (-28.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.3 (-1.3) | 143.0 (-38.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.5 (-1.5) | 143.1 (-38.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2021 | JMU 52 – 49 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#26) | 13.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#4) | 1.15 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.81 (#4) | 1.97 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#19) | 0.512 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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