Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -0.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -2.9 (+10.1) | 132.5 (+18.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.1 (+13.1) | 136.3 (+14.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -0.0 (+13.0) | 135.7 (+15.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -0.7 (+12.3) | 134.0 (+17.0) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#300) | -2.7 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#279) | 0.80 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#281) | 0.70 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#258) | 0.564 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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