Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +4 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -13.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -10.1 (-14.1) | 156.1 (+13.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -10.5 (-14.5) | 157.8 (+12.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -9.3 (-13.3) | 157.1 (+12.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -10.1 (-14.1) | 157.4 (+12.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#9) | 9.3 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#19) | 1.78 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#24) | 2.85 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#73) | 0.615 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.15 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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