Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -9.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -9.3 (+0.7) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -9.0 (+1.0) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -9.1 (+0.9) | 132.6 (-6.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -8.9 (+1.1) | 131.5 (-5.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 17-1 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 61.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#45) | 4.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#14) | 0.67 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#28) | 1.00 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.685 (#5) | 0.548 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 18.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.