You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–12 on winners spread MAE 11.9 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Robert Morris @ Kentucky +10.0 139.8 82% 60–100 ✓
Niagara @ Ohio State +5.1 133.5 68% 74–84 ✓
Morehead State @ UAB +20.6 150.2 97% 71–85 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charlotte +10.8 138.7 84% 64–76 ✓
American University @ William & Mary +16.3 142.6 93% 74–62 ✗
Pennsylvania @ George Mason +23.2 146.9 98% 66–87 ✓
Marist @ Columbia +11.7 145.6 86% 82–67 ✗
Canisius @ East Carolina +7.7 136.1 76% 71–83 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +26.4 147.7 99% 69–81 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Indiana +2.3 127.6 58% 49–85 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana Tech +12.4 138.6 87% 68–70 ✓
Cornell @ Lafayette +0.4 149.4 51% 90–85 ✗
Western Carolina @ Wake Forest +18.5 143.1 95% 75–87 ✓
Tarleton State @ Kansas +21.7 139.1 98% 62–88 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +19.5 148.8 96% 88–104 ✓
Rice @ Houston +10.5 148.4 83% 46–79 ✓
UL Monroe @ Auburn +32.4 137.6 100% 65–93 ✓
Grambling @ Texas Tech +16.2 148.5 93% 62–88 ✓
Oakland @ Oklahoma State +21.1 129.2 97% 56–55 ✗
Green Bay @ Wisconsin +22.8 146.2 98% 34–72 ✓
Kansas City @ Iowa +20.4 148.1 97% 57–89 ✓
Oregon State @ Iowa State +15.9 154.7 93% 50–60 ✓
Texas State @ LSU +17.4 138.2 94% 59–84 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Saint Louis +21.5 144.3 97% 44–86 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Chicago State +9.8 152.4 81% 56–67 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Texas A&M +15.3 122.0 92% 80–81 ✓
Indiana State @ Purdue +13.4 154.7 89% 67–92 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Navy +12.9 131.5 88% 77–57 ✗
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia +20.9 132.1 97% 59–74 ✓
San Diego State @ BYU +10.2 129.8 82% 60–66 ✓
North Florida @ Grand Canyon +17.6 134.0 95% 51–65 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington State +21.4 142.8 97% 61–79 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Colorado State +19.5 175.3 96% 71–91 ✓
Texas Southern @ Saint Mary's +17.4 146.8 94% 58–67 ✓
SMU @ Oregon +12.9 148.2 88% 63–86 ✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara +11.8 137.3 86% 72–88 ✓
Villanova @ UCLA +9.6 146.4 81% 77–86 ✓
Coppin State @ UConn +40.0 151.8 100% 54–89 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Florida +17.1 141.1 94% 53–41 ✗
Southern @ Tulane +9.4 137.2 80% 73–70 ✗
UIC @ Valparaiso +5.3 129.9 68% 74–70 ✗
Air Force @ Tulsa +8.0 137.7 77% 59–58 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Joseph's +18.3 143.3 95% 60–80 ✓
UCF @ Miami +13.3 137.9 89% 95–89 ✗
Vermont @ Maryland +2.5 139.4 59% 57–68 ✓
Merrimack @ Rutgers +3.2 133.3 61% 35–48 ✓
St. Thomas @ St. Francis Brooklyn +7.6 143.5 76% 91–73 ✗
Colgate @ NC State +18.3 139.0 95% 74–77 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Arkansas +10.9 133.0 84% 69–86 ✓
UAlbany @ La Salle +17.1 146.6 94% 64–67 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. John's +23.4 143.3 98% 70–91 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +12.6 134.4 87% 43–81 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Charleston +16.9 157.8 94% 72–79 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Jacksonville State +13.6 137.5 89% 47–70 ✓
Central Michigan @ DePaul +11.1 152.4 84% 66–99 ✓
Youngstown State @ Southeast Missouri State +21.1 155.5 97% 97–79 ✗
New Mexico @ Colorado +13.6 171.7 89% 76–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.