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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IU Indianapolis
@
Evansville
|
+9.3 | 117.3 | 80% | 40–60 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Arizona State
|
+14.4 | 132.2 | 90% | 66–65 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Creighton
|
+12.8 | 155.3 | 88% | 44–51 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Washington
|
+12.6 | 136.8 | 87% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
San Francisco
|
+22.3 | 152.9 | 98% | 76–92 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Loyola Maryland
|
-2.8 | 141.7 | 40% | 65–75 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
UC Davis
|
+20.7 | 149.9 | 97% | 76–84 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Richmond
|
+4.4 | 137.7 | 66% | 85–74 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+20.2 | 134.5 | 97% | 98–103 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Minnesota
|
+4.8 | 138.6 | 67% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Butler
|
+18.5 | 133.0 | 95% | 53–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.