Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN -650 IUIN +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +20 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -9.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -1.8 (+18.2) | 128.8 (-28.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -4.6 (+15.4) | 127.5 (-27.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 1-16 |
| Home | 4-9 | 2-11 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 51.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#202) | 1.7 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#185) | -0.32 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#217) | -0.42 (#170) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 25.9% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 13.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.4% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 14.6% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 43.2% |
Game Analysis
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