Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | ASU -430 UCR +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -14.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -11.4 (-12.4) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -15.3 (-16.3) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#128) | 0.4 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#28) | -0.32 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#72) | -0.44 (#195) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 3.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 10.0% |
| FT Rate | 10.6% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 87.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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