Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -19.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -12.5 (+19.5) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -15.7 (+16.3) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#186) | -7.0 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#35) | -0.32 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#107) | -0.50 (#237) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 28.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 43.2% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 57.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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