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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–9 on winners
spread MAE 13.9
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina Central
@
Memphis
|
+18.0 | 138.7 | 95% | 51–90 | ✓ |
USC
@
Temple
|
+7.4 | 136.1 | 75% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Wagner
@
VCU
|
+7.5 | 125.1 | 75% | 58–44 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
Cincinnati
|
+16.1 | 123.2 | 93% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Duquesne
|
+5.4 | 147.6 | 69% | 73–63 | ✗ |
NJIT
@
Lehigh
|
+28.1 | 150.1 | 99% | 73–56 | ✗ |
Delaware
@
Siena
|
+8.4 | 142.5 | 78% | 83–63 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Towson
|
+21.1 | 138.7 | 97% | 79–71 | ✗ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Toledo
|
+25.4 | 133.0 | 99% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Cleveland State
|
+7.4 | 149.4 | 75% | 67–56 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Michigan
|
+1.2 | 160.4 | 54% | 49–77 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Duke
|
+22.3 | 133.0 | 98% | 56–67 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
South Carolina State
|
-8.1 | 147.9 | 23% | 93–81 | ✓ |
California
@
UNLV
|
+17.5 | 133.3 | 94% | 52–55 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Missouri State
|
+0.8 | 163.8 | 53% | 60–78 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Portland
|
+8.7 | 141.8 | 79% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
San Francisco
|
+13.4 | 159.7 | 89% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
UC Irvine
|
+8.6 | 128.8 | 78% | 50–58 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
UC San Diego
|
+20.7 | 143.4 | 97% | 55–75 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Gonzaga
|
+5.3 | 147.0 | 68% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Hawai'i
|
+5.6 | 143.8 | 69% | 61–73 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Lipscomb
|
+0.3 | 139.7 | 51% | 65–70 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Tennessee
|
+14.0 | 148.8 | 90% | 62–94 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Seton Hall
|
+19.2 | 150.4 | 96% | 44–80 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Florida
|
+6.1 | 149.5 | 71% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Binghamton
@
Sacred Heart
|
+15.9 | 150.8 | 93% | 72–60 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Chattanooga
|
+24.5 | 152.0 | 99% | 45–75 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
Bucknell
|
+15.1 | 157.6 | 92% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Oklahoma State
|
+17.1 | 144.2 | 94% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Wyoming
|
+23.2 | 153.3 | 98% | 45–85 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
East Carolina
|
+9.7 | 149.9 | 81% | 79–95 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Brown
|
+27.7 | 157.8 | 99% | 57–75 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Boston College
|
+15.3 | 143.2 | 92% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+21.1 | 136.3 | 97% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
South Carolina
|
+3.5 | 140.2 | 63% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.