Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SCST +575 LIP -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +12 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -9.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -6.6 (-5.4) | 145.6 (+28.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -6.2 (-5.8) | 146.2 (+27.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -5.8 (-6.2) | 149.9 (+24.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#290) | 2.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#305) | -0.29 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#309) | -0.35 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#190) | 0.562 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 11.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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