Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.3 (+5.3) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.1 (+5.1) | 144.1 (-9.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.6 (+6.6) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#103) | 2.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#183) | 0.31 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#192) | 0.46 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#87) | 0.565 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 11.4% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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