Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | TEM +220 USC -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TEM -7.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -6.0 (-11.0) | 141.6 (+5.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -7.8 (-12.8) | 136.8 (+10.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#54) | 10.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#134) | 0.33 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#122) | 0.52 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#103) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 56.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 60.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 42.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.0% | 36.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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