Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -250 CAL +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -17.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -11.5 (-8.5) | 136.5 (-29.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -15.1 (-12.1) | 134.6 (-27.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#232) | -8.3 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#132) | -1.91 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#140) | -2.74 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#103) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 8.0% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 31.8% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 63.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 95.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 47.8% |
Game Analysis
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