Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK +135 PENN -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -15.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -5.5 (-10.5) | 153.0 (-12.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -6.3 (-11.3) | 152.2 (-11.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -5.4 (-10.4) | 150.2 (-9.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2023 | PENN 80 – 61 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#259) | -7.1 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#192) | -0.61 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#200) | -0.89 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#33) | 0.500 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 4.8% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 58.5% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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