Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -28.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +39 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -17.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -15.3 (+23.7) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -19.3 (+19.7) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#85) | -1.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#118) | -1.12 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#112) | -1.93 (#301) |
| RPI | — | 0.000 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 59.3% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 70.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 30.3% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.