Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -21.2 (-29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -14.9 (-22.9) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -20.1 (-28.1) | 138.1 (+11.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -15.8 (-23.8) | 137.5 (+12.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 11-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#7) | 3.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#24) | -0.36 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#23) | -0.33 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#211) | 0.500 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 10.5% |
| DRB% | 85.3% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 36.4% |
Game Analysis
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