Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -23.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.3 (-5.3) | 137.2 (-14.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -18.7 (-7.7) | 136.4 (-13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.1 (-9.1) | 136.1 (-13.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#19) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#29) | 0.75 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#27) | 0.60 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#22) | 0.250 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 6.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 82.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.1% | 7.4% |
Game Analysis
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