Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PORT -270 ALCN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -7.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -3.3 (+0.7) | 141.3 (-21.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -3.4 (+0.6) | 140.1 (-20.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.1 (+1.9) | 140.2 (-20.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#245) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#297) | -0.68 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#299) | -0.83 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#258) | 0.375 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 27.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 12.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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