Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -25.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | MOST -4000 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.2 (+20.2) | 151.2 (-13.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.4 (+19.4) | 154.9 (-16.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.0 (+15.0) | 152.0 (-14.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#324) | -0.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#336) | -0.91 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.42 (#336) | -1.22 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#258) | 0.062 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 9.1% | 30.1% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 41.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 48.2% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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