Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +16 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -8.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -6.7 (+9.3) | 152.8 (+21.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -6.6 (+9.4) | 147.5 (+26.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -7.4 (+8.6) | 148.7 (+25.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -9.3 (+6.7) | 150.2 (+23.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#264) | -1.3 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#137) | 0.02 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#145) | -0.01 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#192) | 0.688 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 47.5 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.