Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | DUQ -180 HOF +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -5.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -6.9 (-16.9) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -10.1 (-20.1) | 143.1 (-7.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -7.6 (-17.6) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 13-5 |
| Home | 3-11 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#214) | 4.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#107) | -0.30 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#101) | -0.33 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#33) | 0.750 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 6.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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