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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–20 on winners spread MAE 10.6 73 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Niagara @ Duke	+28.1	142.3	91%	42–100	✓
Merrimack @ Florida	+21.6	150.4	90%	45–80	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Kentucky	+25.1	151.3	91%	46–88	✓
Mississippi State @ New Mexico	+5.0	147.4	76%	78–80	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Western Illinois	-0.1	129.3	53%	84–64	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ West Georgia	+3.8	144.4	71%	64–72	✓
Morehead State @ East Tennessee State	+11.1	145.7	86%	62–77	✓
Wake Forest @ Memphis	-3.9	152.2	33%	69–68	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Radford	-8.9	141.4	21%	81–73	✓
UAlbany @ Siena	+11.0	130.4	86%	63–73	✓
Charleston Southern @ East Carolina	+6.3	152.8	78%	77–65	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Canisius	+2.3	127.9	58%	57–60	✓
Army @ Marist	+12.5	128.0	85%	65–76	✓
Morgan State @ Old Dominion	+4.3	146.9	69%	56–88	✓
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart	+4.7	134.6	73%	66–79	✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel	+7.9	143.8	78%	84–68	✗
Northern Colorado @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	—	—	—	72–73	—
South Alabama @ UAB	+9.6	139.7	84%	72–80	✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas	+27.1	156.5	91%	61–115	✓
Georgia State @ South Dakota State	+11.6	129.8	83%	58–105	✓
Omaha @ LSU	+19.5	158.4	90%	73–99	✓
Austin Peay @ Tulsa	+8.1	139.4	80%	75–84	✓
Hampton @ Norfolk State	+4.4	128.4	45%	60–62	✓
Little Rock @ Texas State	+6.4	129.2	68%	56–65	✓
Evansville @ Oregon State	+8.1	134.1	75%	73–69	✗
Manhattan @ Texas A&M	+17.9	148.7	90%	68–109	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Saint Louis	+18.0	152.9	89%	60–91	✓
Northern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago	+6.1	142.5	81%	76–59	✗
UC Riverside @ San Diego	+4.4	142.7	75%	85–71	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Pepperdine	+3.1	151.5	62%	63–60	✗
Denver @ Colorado State	+22.3	148.6	89%	83–81	✗
Northwestern State @ Grand Canyon	+18.1	144.3	89%	72–85	✓
Samford @ New Mexico State	—	—	—	72–81	—
UC Davis @ Colorado	+13.6	146.1	84%	79–95	✓
Arkansas State @ SMU	+13.4	159.6	87%	69–100	✓
Georgia @ Xavier	-9.0	155.2	29%	78–77	✓
New Orleans @ Fresno State	-0.1	142.9	63%	76–85	✗
Texas Tech @ Purdue	+0.7	150.6	47%	56–86	✓
Kansas State @ Nebraska	+3.4	158.2	61%	85–86	✓
Southern @ San José State	+6.9	156.2	80%	66–80	✓
Louisiana @ Santa Clara	+23.3	133.4	90%	43–80	✓
Grambling @ California Baptist	+14.4	140.5	89%	59–72	✓
Montana State @ Long Beach State	-3.4	133.1	30%	78–72	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Portland	+3.6	149.6	75%	85–103	✓
Seattle U @ Stanford	+10.2	152.7	82%	77–69	✗
Sacramento State @ California	+18.8	149.8	89%	67–91	✓
Presbyterian @ UCLA	+18.3	130.1	87%	46–86	✓
Wagner @ Georgetown	+15.1	142.2	88%	75–92	✓
NJIT @ Navy	+10.3	139.7	86%	70–86	✓
Fairfield @ Le Moyne	+0.3	145.4	51%	97–83	✗
Harvard @ Boston University	-1.6	131.5	48%	74–75	✗
Long Island University @ Illinois	+26.4	154.8	91%	58–98	✓
UMass Lowell @ Saint Peter's	+10.8	143.6	85%	66–68	✓
Central Michigan @ Marquette	+16.9	145.0	88%	71–85	✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State	+13.6	162.6	89%	71–91	✓
North Carolina Central @ Dayton	+20.8	144.2	91%	55–74	✓
Nicholls @ Oklahoma State	+17.0	143.7	88%	81–95	✓
Green Bay @ Massachusetts	+6.2	142.5	75%	79–75	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Binghamton	+1.1	131.4	60%	63–52	✗
Mercer @ Eastern Kentucky	+3.0	147.2	59%	95–83	✗
Providence @ Penn State	+6.7	157.1	74%	77–65	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Cal State Bakersfield	+15.2	144.4	90%	70–86	✓
Northeastern @ Duquesne	+2.2	143.6	58%	93–86	✗
Niagara @ Howard	-2.0	124.7	44%	70–80	✗
North Alabama @ Chattanooga	+5.1	143.2	69%	57–71	✓
Southern Indiana @ UIC	+12.3	151.5	86%	73–84	✓
UT Martin @ Prairie View A&M	-8.6	154.1	19%	69–68	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Nevada	+4.9	146.4	74%	64–77	✓
Western Carolina @ Lipscomb	+6.2	143.4	78%	62–83	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Missouri State	-0.6	150.7	48%	67–74	✗
Iona @ Oregon State	-0.6	151.9	54%	91–84	✓
San Francisco @ Minnesota	+2.5	134.3	72%	77–65	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Cal State Fullerton	-5.1	146.6	30%	80–88	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.