Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | XAV +475 UGA -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -20.1 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -9.0 (+8.0) | 155.2 (-0.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -10.5 (+9.5) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -13.0 (+12.0) | 152.0 (+3.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -11.1 (+10.1) | 156.3 (-1.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2024 | UGA 78 – 76 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 89.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#182) | 19.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#185) | 2.06 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#190) | 2.74 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#111) | 0.544 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 17.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 44.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 28.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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