Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -125 XAV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.1 (+2.1) | 149.8 (+4.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -1.3 (+0.7) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -1.7 (+0.3) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -1.2 (+0.8) | 149.2 (+4.8) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | UGA 78 – 77 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#93) | 9.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#90) | 1.15 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#91) | 1.80 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#117) | 0.537 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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