Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -10000 NICH +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +14 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -22.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -17.0 (-3.0) | 143.7 (+32.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -19.4 (-5.4) | 142.3 (+33.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -22.7 (-8.7) | 142.2 (+33.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -21.9 (-7.9) | 146.6 (+29.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-10 |
| Home | 15-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#44) | -5.0 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#58) | -1.60 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#52) | -2.14 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#91) | 0.360 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 45.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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