Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -10000 MAN +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +41 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -16.8 (+24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -17.9 (+23.1) | 148.7 (+28.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -13.1 (+27.9) | 149.5 (+27.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -13.7 (+27.3) | 151.2 (+25.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -14.2 (+26.8) | 152.4 (+24.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#153) | -9.5 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#155) | 0.67 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#122) | 0.64 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#190) | 0.534 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 37.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 56.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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