And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Stephen C. O'Connell Center · November 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FLA -36.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total FLA win
Actual FLA +35 125 Won
Massey FLA -25.2 (+9.8)
Massey Totals 153.0 (-28.0)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML FLA -21.6 (+13.4) 150.4 (-25.4) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML FLA -19.7 (+15.3) 146.4 (-21.4) 91%
Baseline ML FLA -22.8 (+12.2) 147.2 (-22.2) 90%
Baseline Plus ML FLA -21.5 (+13.5) 147.4 (-22.4) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2023 FLA 7757 MRMK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FLA MRMK
Overall 27-8 23-11
Conference 16-2 17-3
Home 14-1 11-0
Away 8-2 9-8
Neutral 5-5 3-3
Last 5 3-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 87.1 68.5
Avg Pts Against 71.5 66.5
Massey 15.1 (#17) -3.9 (#239)
Bradley-Terry 2.58 (#21) 0.74 (#126)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.05 (#22) 0.87 (#136)
RPI 0.697 (#12) 0.436 (#264)
Shooting & Four Factors FLA MRMK
FG% 44.2% 38.5%
3PT% 23.7% 32.6%
REB / G 52.8 29.6
OREB / G 19.2 10.8
AST / TO 1.06 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 46.9%
TOV% 19.8% 18.8%
ORB% 43.8% 29.7%
FT Rate 28.6% 33.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.2% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 19.8%
DRB% 75.3% 57.3%
Opp FT Rate 33.0% 35.9%

Game Analysis

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