Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +35 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -25.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -21.6 (+13.4) | 150.4 (-25.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -19.7 (+15.3) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -22.8 (+12.2) | 147.2 (-22.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -21.5 (+13.5) | 147.4 (-22.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | FLA 77 – 57 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#17) | -3.9 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#21) | 0.74 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#22) | 0.87 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#12) | 0.436 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 52.8 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 19.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 57.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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