Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | FLA -3500 MRMK +1350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -14.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -15.2 (+4.8) | 149.5 (-15.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -11.6 (+8.4) | 148.9 (-14.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -12.2 (+7.8) | 150.0 (-16.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -11.8 (+8.2) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | FLA 80 – 45 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#46) | 0.7 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#140) | 0.38 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#111) | 1.06 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#111) | 0.510 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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