Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -1200 GAST +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +47 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -12.8 (+34.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -11.6 (+35.4) | 129.8 (+33.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.0 (+39.0) | 133.4 (+29.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.7 (+37.3) | 132.6 (+30.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -9.2 (+37.8) | 130.2 (+32.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#167) | -6.2 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#87) | -3.23 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#79) | -4.70 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#37) | 0.373 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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