Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +155 UNCW -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -9.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.9 (+0.9) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.9 (-0.1) | 139.2 (+14.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -8.4 (+0.4) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -7.6 (-0.4) | 141.0 (+13.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#340) | 4.1 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#349) | 0.64 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.72 (#352) | 0.51 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#348) | 0.579 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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