Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -39.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +58 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -34.9 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -28.1 (+29.9) | 142.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.1 (+33.9) | 138.6 (+3.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -33.9 (+24.1) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -32.7 (+25.3) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-1 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 25.8 (#1) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#14) | -0.57 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#21) | -1.29 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#16) | 0.384 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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