Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -10000 SAC +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +24 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -20.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -18.8 (+5.2) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -19.2 (+4.8) | 147.3 (+10.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -21.6 (+2.4) | 148.1 (+9.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -22.5 (+1.5) | 149.1 (+8.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 83.6 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#66) | -6.7 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#125) | -1.06 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#127) | -1.72 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#142) | 0.457 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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