Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -500 SAM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -16.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -12.5 (-3.5) | 145.7 (+7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -13.6 (-4.6) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -12.5 (-3.5) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#128) | -7.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | -0.94 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#111) | -1.88 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#4) | 0.410 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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