Betting Lines
| Spread | BING -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | BING -275 UMES +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BING win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +11 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | BING -1.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BING -1.1 (-12.1) | 131.4 (-16.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -0.2 (-10.8) | 124.5 (-9.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -1.8 (-9.2) | 128.1 (-13.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -1.4 (-9.6) | 129.4 (-14.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BING | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#311) | -10.1 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#350) | 0.66 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.72 (#353) | 0.59 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#299) | 0.596 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BING | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 24.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 30.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 10.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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