Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -2000 UCD +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +16 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -12.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -13.6 (+2.4) | 146.1 (+27.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -11.0 (+5.0) | 147.6 (+26.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -11.7 (+4.3) | 149.6 (+24.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -12.2 (+3.8) | 151.2 (+22.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#91) | 0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#74) | 1.81 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#64) | 2.52 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#88) | 0.636 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 44.3% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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