Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -200 MER +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +12 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -2.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -3.0 (-15.0) | 147.2 (+30.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -2.6 (-14.6) | 146.4 (+31.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -3.0 (-15.0) | 147.6 (+30.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -2.1 (-14.1) | 147.9 (+30.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#278) | -3.3 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#291) | -0.76 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#282) | -1.33 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#151) | 0.400 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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