Betting Lines
| Spread | WGA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | WGA -140 UPST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WGA +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | WGA -3.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WGA -3.8 (+4.2) | 144.4 (-8.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WGA -4.3 (+3.7) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WGA -5.0 (+3.0) | 148.2 (-12.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WGA -4.4 (+3.6) | 146.7 (-10.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WGA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.5 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#255) | -1.9 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#66) | -0.50 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#76) | -1.67 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#152) | 0.482 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WGA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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