Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | PORT -260 CSUF +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +18 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -4.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -3.6 (+14.4) | 149.6 (+38.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -4.3 (+13.7) | 146.4 (+41.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -4.8 (+13.2) | 145.6 (+42.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -5.1 (+12.9) | 149.9 (+38.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -8.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#98) | -2.56 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#108) | -3.67 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#78) | 0.385 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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