Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -185 IONA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -4.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -0.6 (-6.4) | 151.9 (+23.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.0 (-5.0) | 148.5 (+26.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -2.1 (-4.9) | 147.4 (+27.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -2.6 (-4.4) | 148.6 (+26.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#234) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#83) | 1.15 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#92) | 1.88 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.698 (#11) | 0.556 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 42.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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