Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -155 RGV +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -1.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -0.6 (+7.6) | 150.7 (-9.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -0.6 (+7.6) | 144.9 (-3.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -0.3 (+7.3) | 146.5 (-5.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -0.9 (+7.9) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#284) | 1.1 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#327) | 0.36 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#314) | 0.63 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#362) | 0.601 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 40.6% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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