Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +100 SFA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -2.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-37.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -3.1 (-6.1) | 151.5 (-28.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -4.0 (-7.0) | 148.7 (-25.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.2 (-6.2) | 151.6 (-28.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -1.9 (-4.9) | 153.8 (-30.8) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 20-2 |
| Home | 7-10 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | 5.7 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#134) | 0.48 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#105) | 0.96 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#125) | 0.573 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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