Betting Lines
| Spread | ODU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ODU -1200 MORG +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +32 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ODU -6.3 (+25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ODU -4.3 (+27.7) | 146.9 (-2.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ODU -4.8 (+27.2) | 148.1 (-4.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ODU -5.6 (+26.4) | 148.3 (-4.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ODU -4.6 (+27.4) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#298) | -7.6 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#239) | -2.90 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#256) | -4.04 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#206) | 0.360 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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