Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +40 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -26.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -26.4 (+13.6) | 154.8 (+1.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -21.4 (+18.6) | 152.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -25.1 (+14.9) | 154.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -25.7 (+14.3) | 153.6 (+2.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#9) | -3.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#91) | 1.01 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#74) | 0.77 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#58) | 0.532 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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