Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | BU +160 HARV -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -3.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -1.6 (+2.6) | 131.5 (+17.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -1.6 (+2.6) | 138.9 (+10.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -1.9 (+2.9) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -1.5 (+2.5) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#222) | 1.0 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#170) | -0.17 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#263) | -0.86 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#231) | 0.464 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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