Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | PSU +145 PROV -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -4.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.0 (-37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -6.7 (-18.7) | 157.1 (-15.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -5.6 (-17.6) | 161.2 (-19.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -6.9 (-18.9) | 157.7 (-15.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -5.9 (-17.9) | 159.5 (-17.5) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#57) | 4.7 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#17) | 0.13 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#18) | 0.31 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#24) | 0.523 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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