Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -1400 NIU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +17 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -4.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -6.1 (-23.1) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.8 (-20.8) | 145.9 (-10.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.6 (-20.6) | 148.8 (-13.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -5.5 (-22.5) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#304) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#323) | -1.55 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#323) | -2.95 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#297) | 0.415 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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