Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -300 UNO +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UNO -1.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNO -0.1 (+9.1) | 142.9 (+18.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.9 (+7.1) | 142.3 (+18.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.3 (+7.7) | 143.7 (+17.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.0 (+9.0) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | 4.7 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#251) | 1.57 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#209) | 2.30 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#192) | 0.617 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 9.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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