Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -230 SOU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -8.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -6.9 (+7.1) | 156.2 (-10.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -7.0 (+7.0) | 154.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -6.3 (+7.7) | 151.6 (-5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -8.6 (+5.4) | 151.6 (-5.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#223) | -5.4 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#265) | -1.58 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#253) | -2.38 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#212) | 0.422 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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